Anti-tax guru Grover Norquist has a must-read piece on how Bush might lose in American Enterprise magazine — and it’s not the economy or the Iraqi war, stupid.

Bush might lose because he threatens the way Democrats live. ‘There is no part of the Republican coalition that lives off the state or its power,’ writes Norquist. ‘This is a tautology, as the Democrats have held united control of the government from 1932 to 1952, 1960-68, 1976-80 and 1992-94. If there was a part of the GOP dependent on state power, it was asphyxiated or co-opted long ago.’

The intentions of five Senate Democrats to retire and the ‘marvels of modern gerrymandering’ ensure that the Democrats could be in an even weaker position in the Senate come Nov. 3, 2004. Four more years of Bush would bring modest tort reform, expand NAFTA (hurting the unions), and continue transferring public sector jobs to the private sector (helping the taxpayer but hurting the Association of Federal, State, County, and Municipal Employees, which loses 37 dues-paying members for every hundred jobs that go to private-sector workers).

Looked at this way, Bush hatred is really Bush fear. As Norquist concluded: ‘Cornered rats fight. Hard.’