T-minus one week until the 2006 election! I figured I would throw out some predictions. So, come on back on Nov. 8th to see if I’m on target or way off course. Luckily this is only a blog, so if I’m wrong I won’t have to pull a James Carville and put a trashcan on my head on TV.
I think the Dems will win the House – though I think it will be close rather than a blow out. The real interesting stuff is happening in the Senate:
Let’s start with the easy ones: Kyl over Pederson in Arizona, Stabenow over Bouhard in Michigan, Lieberman over Lamont and Streitz in Connecticut, Whitehouse over Chafee in Rhode Island.
Moving on to the once close, but now pretty easy: Klobuchar over Kennedy in Minnesota, Cantwell over McGavick in Washington, Tester over Burns in Montana.
I also think Dems will sweep through the following hotly contested areas: Menendez over Kean in New Jersey, Brown over DeWine in Ohio, Casey over Santorum in Pennsylvania, and Cardin over Steele in Maryland. If I’m wrong on any of those, I think it will be Steele – he is a very personable candidate, so he’s a wild card for sure.
The closest races will be in Virginia and Missouri. Who thought VA would be so close a year ago? It was supposed to be a safe seat for the GOP! Boy how things change. Tennessee tends to get lumped in with these races as the big three that could go either way, but I think Corker is going to come out pretty clean in TN over Ford. In VA, Webb is polling a few points up right now, but I have a feeling Allen is going to pull it off. Over in Missouri – it’s totally even with Talent and McCaskill. This is going to be close, but I think in the end, Talent squeaks by.
And there you have it. If you think I’m on track or loony, feel free to send in comments. Otherwise, we’ll all have to wait until the wee hours of the morning one week from today.