Kristin Tate joins She Thinks to discuss her new book “The Liberal Invasion of Red State America.” With the migration of liberal Americans from blue states to red states at an all-time high, Tate breaks down the data and explains why this trend is drastically changing the economy and living standards in many states.
Kristin Tate is an author and columnist focused on taxation and federal spending. She is currently a Robert Novak Journalism Fellow at the Fund for American Studies, examining the size and scope of the federal workforce. Kristin writes a weekly column for The Hill newspaper. Her previous books include “How Do I Tax Thee?” and “Government Gone Wild: How D.C. Politicians Are Taking You for a Ride—and What You Can Do About It.” Red Alert Politics and Newsmax Magazine each named Kristin one of the 30 most influential right-of-center leaders under the age of 30 in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Previously Kristin worked as a reporter focused on immigration issues for Breitbart.
TRANSCRIPT
Beverly:
Welcome to She Thinks, a podcast where you’re allowed to think for yourself. I’m your host, Beverly Hallberg. On today’s episode we discuss the migration of liberal Americans from blue states to red states, and how this trend is drastically changing the economy and living standards in many states like Virginia and Texas. To break down the data and the consequences, Kristin Tate is joining us. She is the author of the new book, The Liberal Invasion of Red State America. It is just out, so do go out there and get it. Before we bring her on, I want to give you a little bit of background on Kristin. Kristin is an author and columnist focused on taxation and federal spending. She is currently a Robert Novak journalism fellow at the Fund for American Studies, examining the size and scope of the federal workforce. Kristin writes a weekly column for The Hill newspaper. Her previous books include, How Do I Tax Thee? and Government Gone Wild: How D.C. Politicians Are Taking You for a Ride — and What You Can Do About It. Well, Kristin, a pleasure to have you on the program today.
Kristin:
Thank you so much for having me, Beverly.
Beverly:
I find this topic fascinating, probably partly because I grew up in California. I know the taxes, I know the policies there. They have caused my parents who retired two years ago to move to South Carolina so that they could afford retirement, so this is near and dear to my heart. But I’m curious about what made you decide to write this book and to break down some of the data for us.
Kristin:
I grew up in New Hampshire and New Hampshire has undergone a complete transformation over the last few decades. When I was growing up in the ’90s New Hampshire was a really live free or die red, purple state, very independent place. Of course, we have no income tax up there, no sales tax. It’s just a really cool place, or it historically has been, very much a third party type state. But recently that’s really changed as Democrats move from Massachusetts where the taxes are high and the cost of living is high and they move up to New Hampshire to save money and have a higher standard of living. And now New Hampshire state house is all Democrats. The only Republican we have left is our governor up there. And there are whispers now of implementing an income tax or even a sales tax, which would drastically change the way of life. But as these Democrats move up, they want more revenue streams to fund their various initiatives.
So this is something that I experienced growing up as I watched my home state change and then later in life I moved to Texas as an adult and I saw something very similar going on. People moving from California where of course you said your parents are from and New York as well, and really changing the political landscape of Texas. And then in 2017, Republicans passed their tax bill, which was a really wonderful bill in a lot of ways. However, because of the salt and local tax deduction, which was now capped at $10,000 that just really sped up this trend and caused a lot of wealthy blue Staters to flee for low tax jurisdictions. So that was really what sparked my interest in this topic, but when the tax bill was passed, that’s when I said, okay, I need to write a book about this now. Because this is really becoming a significant change that’s really altering the political map on a national scale
Beverly:
And yeah, and this is something people should pay attention to is 2020 continues, the 2020 election because there are States that are changing. Virginia that’s one that has changed most recently, the state definitely going from red to purple to now blue. So I think it’s going to be important as we see even the down ballot races to see what happens in these States. But the question I have for you, and this is what I think is so ironic about people fleeing these high tax States, going to low tax States. Or fleeing more policies that don’t benefit them and them wanting to leave is, they want to take so many of their policies with them, right? It’s not like they’ve left and they’ve realized that’s not the best way to govern a state. They go to another state and then think, well they can replicate the same thing there without the negative consequences. So why is it that people don’t seem to get it, that you don’t want this state to become California?
Kristin:
Well, a lot of people just go where the jobs are and where the corporate growth is. So here in Texas we have so many jobs, we can’t fill them all. In fact, there is a state program here to actively recruit workers from other States. We just cannot get enough workers down here. So people move because the good jobs are in the red States, the cost of living is lower. They’re not necessarily moving for political reasons and many folks are not connecting the dots. They’re not saying, hey, maybe there are lots of jobs in Texas and Florida and Arizona because fiscal conservatism has served these States quite well, people just aren’t really thinking about that. But this trend is going to have real consequences. I mean, New York and California are both expected to lose US congressional seats because of population decline. While Texas and Florida are going to gain seats. So this is something Republicans need to pay attention to. People in the right of center sphere of thinking are constantly talking about immigration and DACA and the wall and all basically those are all very important issues.
But I actually think it’s this domestic migration that’s really going to have the largest impact on our political environment over the next couple of years. And Beverly, it is vindicating in certain ways because we’re seeing people moving to places that have fiscal conservative policy in place, so that’s good. But on the other hand, these trends are really going to pose some real challenges for Republicans and we need to wake up to this and start to address it.
Beverly:
Well, let’s talk about the States where you see people leaving. So you mentioned New York and California being two of those. Do you see the States at all trying to adjust to the population decline that they have or are they seeming to double down on the policies that led people to migrate to begin with?
Kristin:
Well, this is part of what’s so frustrating is so often these blue States like New York, Illinois, and California just doubled down on the policies that created the dismal situation in the first place. Because they’re losing tax revenue as citizens sleep, so to make up for the lost revenue, they’re just taxing the people who stay behind even more. New York recently increased its tax on real estate worth over a million dollars, which of course is quite common in Manhattan. Almost every property is worth more than a million dollars. And the predictable results of that was a drop in real estate sales in New York city of 16%. I mean, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that when you increase taxation on real estate, real estate sales will go down. But the people who run these blue States just don’t get it, I mean, if they want to stop the exodus they’re seeing, they must make these places more affordable. And the most logical way to do that is to lessen their state and local tax burdens.
But unfortunately, we’re just not really seeing that happen in most parts of the country that are losing people.
Beverly:
And one of the polls that you have in your book, which I think is fascinating is you found that 53% of residents are considering leaving California on account of the high cost of living. I know especially in the Bay area, San Francisco has been brought up a lot about the high cost of living and with so many people considering leaving the state, and this is just one sample of course, like you mentioned Illinois being one of those other States, New York. Have we ever seen this type of migration, a more modern history in America where people are leaving as frequently as they are at or at the levels they are? Have we seen this before?
Kristin:
Not at these kinds of levels, this is really something new and it’s a probably a reason why a lot of Republicans aren’t paying attention to this because it’s not something that we’ve ever dealt with before. It’s not something the party has ever really had to address. But you bring up a really good point, which is cost of living, a lot of people think that these domestic migration trends are purely an effect of taxation. And while taxation is certainly a large part of that, you’re right, it’s also cost of living. I ran an analysis for the book that found $100 will purchase you about $90 worth of goods in New York and California. That same exact $100 bill will get you far more than $110 worth of services and goods in Florida, Texas and across a lot of the Midwest. So people are asking themselves, where can my dollars go furthest? And of course it happens to be in red States, it’s no coincidence that eight of the 10 fastest growing States in the country and most prosperous States in the country have Republican governors.
Fiscal policies, that’s our conservatives tend to work, they tend to let people keep more of their own money, it attracts corporate growth and this makes everyone more prosperous.
Beverly:
And at the same time, I’m assuming this does change even the housing market, I’ve been looking at some numbers showing that people, rental prices in some of these cities, especially in the South. Think of Nashville, think of Greenville, South Carolina, think of Charleston, South Carolina, that rents are going sky high. I’m assuming that’s because with so many people moving, not everybody is willing to stake a claim and stay somewhere for a long time. So renting is becoming more popular, especially among young people than home ownership.
Kristin:
That’s exactly right. I mean I think there are a lot of factors that go into young people not wanting to own homes. Student loan debt is certainly one of them, young people simply don’t have a lot of money in the bank. But no, I think you’re right, I think all of these trends play into this, young people like to be very mobile. They want the ability to go where the jobs are and move quickly as they need to. So, yeah, we’re seeing rents go up in a lot of these places, and that’s largely the effect of people wanting to have that option to pick up and move if a better opportunity presents itself.
Beverly:
So let’s talk about the red States that you see turning and you’ve mentioned a few of them so far, but what States do you see that we could see them turning from red to purple to maybe blue in the near future? And what type of policies, people who live in those States, what type of policies are they going to be battling?
Kristin:
So people laugh at me sometimes when I say this, but Texas really could go blue. And that is a terrifying concept to think about. The fastest growing cities in the country are right here in Texas and in 2018 Democrats did better in Texas than they have in over two decades. Super Tuesday, we thought Bernie Sanders, he didn’t win Texas, but he came awfully close, that tells you where the direction of the democratic party here in Texas is heading. And people are flocking to Texas city, people don’t realize this, I’m sure you do since you’re from California, but a lot of millennials don’t realize that California used to be a reliably red state. It was a very conservative place and today Texas’ demographics are almost identical to those of California in the late 1980s right before Democrats started their winning streak of presidential runs in California.
So people on the right side of the aisle really cannot take Texas for granted. If Republican blues Texas, it is all over. Republicans will never win federal elections again. And I want to just add, even if Texas doesn’t go blue in the next decade or two, as it goes more to the left, even if it doesn’t become fully blue, Republicans are going to have to spend an increased amount of precious time and resources on the ground in Texas. And of course, that just diverts resources and time away from other critical States. So I would say the big one is Texas, but of course we’re seeing these changes happen in Virginia, Colorado, even States that you wouldn’t necessarily think that this kind of change is taking place. Deep red States like Oklahoma even are seeing a shift to the left, especially in the cities. So I would say the big one is Texas, but it’s really something that’s happening through red States around the country.
Beverly:
And there’s been a lot of talk about our polarization in this country and what people may call more of a tribal mentality where people stay in their own tribe, in their own communities and everybody pretty much has the same perspective. Do you find that this leads to more polarization or the fact that people are living in the same communities, maybe they have a different ideology. Is it good for people to live together, are we learning from each other, or is this further tearing us apart?
Kristin:
It’s further tearing us apart. There is a sociological term called clustering, which is basically this theory that without even realizing it, people tend to geographically surround themselves with others and think like them. And that includes politics. So when I was researching for my book, the liberal invasion of red state America, what I found is that blue state residents who move to red state cities tend to vote overwhelmingly for Democrats once they arrive in their new States. However, blue state residents who move to red States, rural areas and suburban areas are much more likely to vote for Republicans. So if you look at these States that are receiving large numbers of domestic migrants, what you actually find is that the cities are becoming much more blue. But in fact, in many cases the rural areas and some suburban areas are becoming much more red. So the States themselves within the States are becoming extremely polarized, which to your point means that people aren’t really mingling with others who might have different views than them.
And this is very dangerous and it’s probably one of the reasons why we’ve become so polarized and people have become so full of hatred when dealing with others on the opposite side of the political aisle.
Beverly:
And so this begs the question, what should people who believe in a less government approach and are fearful of those moving into States that want a large government approach? What is the best way for those of us who appreciate less government to think about this and what can we do?
Kristin:
Well, I always tell people, we’ve got to start reaching out to our new neighbors and explaining to them why these red States have become so successful. Everyone listening to this podcast, everyone who reads my book, if you live in a red state, you have an obligation to get the word out to new comers and say to them, hey, you know what? There’s a reason why Texas or New Hampshire or Florida or Arizona or wherever you live, there’s a reason why the jobs are here and you know what? Maybe we should keep it this way. There’s also some other bright spots and reasons why people should be hopeful. For example, I found that even though domestic migrants to red States are very likely to vote for Democrats, the children of domestic migrants to red States are actually more likely to vote for Republicans than their parents are.
So if you have someone who moved from California to Texas, that person may vote for a Democrat, but their child who spends their whole lives growing up in Texas, that child is more likely to vote for a Republican when they become of age to start voting. So there are reasons to be optimistic and I think everyone really needs to make meaningful efforts to reach out across the aisle and get conversations going. We cannot keep ourselves in an echo chamber bubble otherwise, we are going to lose some of these States like Texas. And by the time we realize what a problem it is, it might be too late.
Beverly:
I think there’s a lot of opportunity to talk to our neighbors about this. So I agree with you on that. I want to let listeners know once again, the new book is called, The Liberal Invasion of Red State America. Go get it today, there’s a lot of great information in there, but for now, Kristin, thank you so much for joining She Thinks today.
Kristin:
Thank you so much for having me, Beverly. Really an honor to join the show.
Beverly:
And thank you all for joining us today. Before you go, I did want to let you know of another great podcast you should subscribe to in addition to, She Thinks. It’s called Problematic Women and it’s hosted by Kelsey Bolar and Lauren Evans where they both sort through the news to bring stories and interviews that are of particular interest to conservative leaning or problematic women. That is women whose views and opinions are often excluded or mocked by those on the so called feminist left. Every Thursday, hear them talk about everything from pop culture, to policy and politics, by searching for Problematic Women wherever you get your podcasts. Last, if you enjoyed this episode of She Thinks, do leave us a rating or review on iTunes, it does help. And we’d love it if you shared this episode so your friends know where they can find more She Thinks episodes. From all of us here at Independent Women’s Forum. Thanks for listening.