Beyoncé headlined Vice President Kamala Harris’ Texas rally to close the deal with female voters, particularly women of color. Unfortunately for Harris, the biggest musical artist on the planet can’t sprinkle enough #blackgirlmagic to address discontent within this demographic. How former President Donald Trump performs with black women will be worth watching on Election Day.
Do not expect a massive wave of black female voters to flow into the Trump camp. However, black women have been quietly moving away from Democratic politics and policies. Per CNN exit polls, 90% of black women voted for Joe Biden, down from 94% when Hillary Clinton ran. Trump’s shares of their vote rose from 4% in 2016 to 9% in the 2020 presidential election. Harris is down another 7% in the New York Times/Siena College polling this month – not a negligible trend. Especially for those who are supposed to be motivated by the historicism of the first female president and first woman of color to the highest office. A separate survey by The Cut of 1,200 black women polls Harris’ support at 82% with this demographic compared to 14% for Trump.
For all of the good vibes and joy that marked the start of her campaign, Harris now battles voter apathy. The share of black women who plan to vote in the 2024 presidential election fell from 91% in September to 82% – better than the 79% share that Joe Biden garnered before he was undemocratically replaced on the ticket, but not a positive trend for Harris.
According to an annual poll of black women, two out of three (65%) are dissatisfied with the direction of the country, compared to less than half (48%) just two years ago when the inflation rate was higher. Shares of those who say the economy has worsened or that their wages have fallen behind the cost of living both crossed the 50% threshold. Reducing prices and housing affordability topped their list of concerns, not abortion or diversity.
A clear generational divide is pitting older party-faithful black women against young women, who are open to Trump or third-party candidates. For years, younger black women have expressed dissatisfaction and disillusionment with the Democratic Party.
The Biden-Harris economy has done them no favors. A significant majority (64%) say they are worse off today than four years ago, compared to 46% of older black women who say the same. While Harris often parrots the refrain, “I came from a middle-class home,” Trump projects relatability. Donning a McDonald’s apron and filling fry orders or hopping in the front seat of a garbage truck speak volumes. So does his economic record; he presided over the lowest unemployment rate for black women at 4.2% in 2019.
Black women are also turned off by radical cultural policies, especially those that undermine the traditional black family. Black Democrats are far out of step with their party on gender identity issues because of the influence of religion on their views and tend to look more like Republicans. According to Pew Research, two-thirds of black Democrats believe that sex is biological. Nearly seven out of 10 black parents either prefer that their K-12 children learn that view or that kids should not learn about this subject at school at all.
In Harris, they have a former prosecutor who enforced truancy laws against the parents of elementary-aged kids, which disproportionately hurt black parents. She locked up a single mother whose 11-year-old daughter missed school from hospitalizations due to the painful sickle cell anemia disease. Her record dealing with wrongfully convicted people (particularly black men) is still controversial.
Additionally, black moms strongly support greater school choice and are looking for candidates willing to open more educational options up to their kids. Conservatives have championed breaking students free from the constraints of failing public schools and promoting competition in education for families of all means. The Left ardently opposes school choice.
Trump’s economic message of reducing household bills and eliminating taxes such as those on overtime and tips resonates, but so might his acknowledgment that God created two sexes: male and female.
Black women will show up for Kamala Harris on Tuesday, but their ranks will be thinner. Younger blacks are increasingly abandoning generational party allegiance for independence and policy alignment. Free Megan Thee Stallion concerts and Beyoncé appearances will not be enough to overcome this political realignment.