A new research brief in the Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences finds no association between renewable energy production and fossil fuel production in 33 states. The study aimed to discern if renewable energy displaces fossil fuels.
The study is behind a paywall, but an article on Phys.org about the study indicates that the data set spanned from 1997 to 2020 and covered 33 states “that produce fossil fuels in the U.S.” The production of renewable energy in a state did not lower or replace the production of traditional thermal generation. The data set was state-level per capita production of coal, natural gas, and crude oil, as well as per capita energy production from geothermal, conventional hydroelectric, solar, wind, wood and waste, and biofuels.
Additionally, the author found that 96% of the variation in traditional thermal generation was explained by fixed factors in each state, such as endowments and the geologically available deposits.
The author, assistant professor of rural sociology at Penn State, Ryan Thombs, advocates for more direct curbing of fossil fuel production, including policies “that directly limit fossil fuel production through carbon taxes, setting production caps on fossil fuels and keeping fossil fuel reserves in the ground.” He also says that “many policies to this point assume that growth in renewable energy corresponds with a proportional decrease in fossil fuels.” The author’s footnotes acknowledge that “solar and wind do face a limitation in that humans cannot control how windy or sunny it is, whereas there is a definitive resource supply of fossil fuels.”
There may be many reasons for this. Oil, gas, and coal have important reliability attributes for the electric grid: they can be ramped up and ramped down as needed (dispatchable), they are baseload (can generate steady, predictable amounts), and operate 24/7. Thermal resources also have applications where renewables simply cannot substitute with electricity, including transportation, industrial processes, and heating. While outfitting passenger vehicles with batteries is becoming mainstream, airplanes cannot carry enough batteries to become all-electric. Many states, like Alaska and North Dakota, also rely heavily on their natural resources for jobs, tax revenue, and economic growth.
Another explanation is that renewable energy adds intermittent, weather-dependent energy at the margins and, instead of displacing other sources, leads to more energy consumption overall. More electricity and energy is an unabashedly good thing, especially when, as Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in March remarks at CERAWeek, “over 2 billion people today cook their daily meals and heat their homes burning wood.”
More energy means growing access to modern living standards around the world. U.S. oil, gas, and coal are indispensable.